Preference or Bonus

[COOSEFAN]

Responding to M77's post, I have a question, how does the draw actually work in terms of being drawn for each species. Is there just one draw and when an applicant's name is drawn he/she will draw for any applied for hunt that is not already filled? Or is there a separate drawing for each hunt and all those that have applied for the particular hunt are drawn from that specific pool? It seems to me that it is the former. A couple years ago a friend drew the Aravaipa bighorn and an Unit 10 early rifle in the same year. There must be some relationship since it would be almost statisically impossible to draw both independent of the other in the same year.

 

 

Ok, that's funny, sort of.

 

Here is what I have suspected, at least half heartedly, for the past several years, but have never mentioned it to anyone for fear of being laughed out of the building, but here goes.

 

You hear of alot of people that draw more than one very hard to get tags every year. What if, by mistake, the program used to assign all the random numbers in the drawing was giving some people the same random number for every species? You are supposed to get a new number for every species, in essence a seperate drawing for deer, sheep, elk, etc.

 

So, say Joe Hunter gets a real low number in the elk draw, then when it's time for drawing the sheep tags, instead of being given him a new number, the computer lets him keep the original? As complicated as all the rules are now witht he bonus points, percentages, etc, it would not be that unfeasible to think the program had a bug or two.

 

I've heard of too many people that have drawn antelope and late Kaibab or sheep and early elk, to think that it is pure luck. I myself once drew a rifle antelope tag (1 bonus point), a 7W rifle bull tag (2 bonus points) and a unit 33 Coues tag (1 bonus point) in the same year.

 

Ok, Im going back in the basement now, putting my tin foil hat back on and waiting for the black helicopters to swarm my house.

I was wondering the same thing! With all the mess-ups that DO happen, it is very feasible for that to happen. BTW.......I know of a guy who got an Arivaipa Sheep tag AND an Early rifle BUll tag THIS YEAR! And I also personnally know three guys who drew 3 Early Rifle Bull tags AND 3 Strip tags in the same year a couple years ago. It happens too often with incredible odds against it to not make you wonder!? JIM>

[Mason]

A lot of good responses boys. So far the 2 I like the best are the even and odd birthdays, and squaring the Bonus points. Seems like if they combined the two people with high points would have a good chance of pulling tags.

[donniedent]

I just looked at the stats for a quality hunt: Unit 10 archery bull.

150 tags and 2679 applicants. If nobody can get drawn again until everybody gets a tag (and the same people put in every year), then it will take 17 years for everybody to get a tag.

OR, if everybody that gets a tag has to sit out 2 years, then instaed of there being 2679 applicants there will be 2379 applicants for the 150 tags - whoopie!

The stats are public domain - do the math, and you won't like standing in line (preference) idea.

I don't like agreeing with Lark too much (gives him a big head) but he's right - there is no answer.

 

TOO MANY PEOPLE, FOLKS!

 

Mike

 

 

Yes, you're right about unit 10 but take real numbers and apply them as a total number of tags and a total number of applicants. 2 years wouldn't be near enough of a wait, I was thinking more along the lines of 5-6 years. I'm waiting that long now, so why not have to wait that long and have a much greater chance of being drawn. Makes perfect sense to me.

 

 

Donnie

 

Responding to M77's post, I have a question, how does the draw actually work in terms of being drawn for each species. Is there just one draw and when an applicant's name is drawn he/she will draw for any applied for hunt that is not already filled? Or is there a separate drawing for each hunt and all those that have applied for the particular hunt are drawn from that specific pool? It seems to me that it is the former. A couple years ago a friend drew the Aravaipa bighorn and an Unit 10 early rifle in the same year. There must be some relationship since it would be almost statisically impossible to draw both independent of the other in the same year.

 

 

Ok, that's funny, sort of.

 

Here is what I have suspected, at least half heartedly, for the past several years, but have never mentioned it to anyone for fear of being laughed out of the building, but here goes.

 

You hear of alot of people that draw more than one very hard to get tags every year. What if, by mistake, the program used to assign all the random numbers in the drawing was giving some people the same random number for every species? You are supposed to get a new number for every species, in essence a seperate drawing for deer, sheep, elk, etc.

 

So, say Joe Hunter gets a real low number in the elk draw, then when it's time for drawing the sheep tags, instead of being given him a new number, the computer lets him keep the original? As complicated as all the rules are now witht he bonus points, percentages, etc, it would not be that unfeasible to think the program had a bug or two.

 

I've heard of too many people that have drawn antelope and late Kaibab or sheep and early elk, to think that it is pure luck. I myself once drew a rifle antelope tag (1 bonus point), a 7W rifle bull tag (2 bonus points) and a unit 33 Coues tag (1 bonus point) in the same year.

 

Ok, Im going back in the basement now, putting my tin foil hat back on and waiting for the black helicopters to swarm my house.

I was wondering the same thing! With all the mess-ups that DO happen, it is very feasible for that to happen. BTW.......I know of a guy who got an Arivaipa Sheep tag AND an Early rifle BUll tag THIS YEAR! And I also personnally know three guys who drew 3 Early Rifle Bull tags AND 3 Strip tags in the same year a couple years ago. It happens too often with incredible odds against it to not make you wonder!? JIM>

 

Those guys were non-residents too. I heard about those same guys.

[coues krazy]

Again, wait 5-6 years for a chance to draw a tag? Just bacause you wait that amount of time is not going to guarantee you a tag the next year. You could still wait 10 or more years to draw. I would rather have everybody throw thier name in a hat, and let them draw names as desertbull said. I dont want to wait to apply for elk or any thing else, and I doubt the majority of hunters do either.

[KGAINES]

responding to muleskinner, if i'm not mistaken, the "director" can issue a permit for anything to anyone he wants. outside the draw, over and above what the biologists say is ok for the unit. a couple years ago, supposedly an old man who could never get an elk tag wrote the azgfd and told em to jump in the lake, he was going elk hunting and he didn't care if they arrested him and so on. he then got a tag in mail from the "director". i always assumed it was an urban myth. maybe it wasn't. but this is the first time i've ever really heard of it happening. too bad you didn't note the names. wonder if there is a way to see how many "director issue" permits go out every year? maybe i oughta quit bashin' shroufe and get me a sheep tag. this is a really interesting thing here. someone with some investigative skills oughta look into it. Lark.

 

Lark I suspect if you give shroufe the same treatment as the warden on the 101 you might get the sheep tag, you would just have to promise to never do it again. Seems to fit the once in a lifetime rule.

[donniedent]

Again, wait 5-6 years for a chance to draw a tag? Just bacause you wait that amount of time is not going to guarantee you a tag the next year. You could still wait 10 or more years to draw. I would rather have everybody throw thier name in a hat, and let them draw names as desertbull said. I dont want to wait to apply for elk or any thing else, and I doubt the majority of hunters do either.

 

 

You are right you aren't gauranteed a tag but you stand alot better chance, especially if you apply for "fringe" units. And as far as the majority of hunters go, if you could put a waiting period system together that was fair and increased drawing odds for everyone and put it to a vote, it would win by a land slide. From what I've read here in this thread a good number of guys like the idea.

 

Listen, I'm not saying its a perfect idea. It has alot of "if's" and "what if's". As a matter of fact I like the idea of 50% going to max point holders and then if you draw you gotta wait 2 years. I think its a much better idea than a straight across the board 5 year wait. The ONLY way to better the draw odds is to eliminate applicants, the only way to do that is a waiting period, there is no other way to do it.

 

Donnie

[KGAINES]

After thinking about it AZGFD would not allow it unless they raised tag fees, and you still had to apply for your bonus points in the waiting years so that they could still get their money. Then if we still complained they would make it three or four years with the same rules and that is a bad thing, we do not want them to know that we will pay every year for nothing. I have never been drawn for elk my first choice is an archery tag in 6a, this year my second choice was an any elk tag in a limited opp hunt, last year it was a fringe tag, the year before that it was a limited opp. hunt and all the previous years it was a cow tag. After I get my bull tag whenever that may be a cow tag will be my second thru fifth choice again. I really wouldn't mind if it was 40 or 50 percent to the people with the most bonus points, but the rest of the people should have a shot every year, if they want to apply for the early bull tags they will probably wait for years, if they don't there will be a chance every year. We have archery deer and turkey plus bear coming up and all of us have that opportunity, it should take the sting away a little bit.

Good Luck and God Bless

[donniedent]

I love the way you think Keith. You just love to hunt huh?

 

You are 100% right, they wouldn't do it for the simple fact that they would lose money.

[Switchback]

I drew an antelope tag in 2C a couple of years ago. There were only 10 tags available in this unit and I drew one with no bonus points. Lucky me!! That's not the point. Since there only a few of us hunting in a small unit I had the opportunity to meet all 10 I thought. On the second day of the hunt I downed a buck and took him to the trappers den in Show low and found that there were quite a few other fresh antelope heads on the ground, I started looking at the tags for no particular reason and saw that there were 3 tags on that said DIRECTOR ISSUE 1, 2, and 3.

 

Maybe those were some of the people that had mess ups on the applications due to the G and F.

I would bet that a certain amount of the director issued permitts go to USO

[biggelkhunter]

I think the game and fish do the best job they can with the amount of hunter and non-hunter (Tree Huggers) that put in every year. What we as hunter need to do is to find away to weed out all the non-hunters and propose it to the game and fish and the state to make it law. JS

[Noel Arnold]

For many years I have heard the rumor's of certain high proflie people getting very hard tag's year after year.I do not know if there has been some corruption in the dept. over the years.But if you made a person wait a few years after getting a tag,then at least you might be able to control that corruption during that waiting period.

Noel

[.270]

hmmmmm. alla this talk of conspiracy and such makes me real curious now. bullwidgeon gets his 3rd elk tag in a row and ever game warden in the state is on a first name basis with him and one even confuses my butt with him. i'm thinkin' there is somethin' fishy goin' on between him and them warden fellers........Lark.

[Coues79]

If I remember correctly, there was an idea a while back about people sending in their white slips on whether or not they harvested an animal during their hunt. If that were made mandatory, and base your next years ability to hunt that specific species, that would help somewhat in making the odds a little better. You might even be able to weed out a few tree huggers too. I don't think there would be anything wrong with making it mandatory to send in your success of a hunt anyways. It would help get a better idea of harvesting data.

Just an idea. That seems like it would be easy to implement into the system. Not sure if there are any legalities about doing something like that.