Luck of the draw?

[Tines]

I'm no expert, and all of you software geeks don't laugh at me, but here are some thoughts as I'm not totally familiar with the "system" either.

 

A guy I used to hunt with was a pretty smart dude. Probably why he "used" to hunt with me. Ha! Anyway, he used to think that the program written that randomly issues these numbers for each application or BP might be attracted to a certain group of numbers, series of numbers in a certain order and so on.

 

So if a certain program (or algarithm, as he called it) seemed to "like" the numbers 8,7,20 and 9 better than 4,3,6 and 0, I'd have a pretty good chance at being issued a lower randomly generated number because my birthday is 08/20/1979. Did that make sense? Or, maybe those numbers (or series of numbers) are located in a SS#. Either way, one or both of those two sets of numbers (bday and SS#) is what identifies the application or applicant.

 

This is just a theory. It made sense in my head. But after explaining it to a friend of mine who actually watched how the process took place, he thought I was crazy.

 

I'm with you, Brian. Something doesn't seem right. Maybe it IS an inherent flaw in the program or something. 7-8 yrs with December tags is CRAZY! I've drawn 3 in 18 yrs. Two happened to be back-to-back.

[azpackhorse]

Nope! all on one app!

[azpackhorse]

I'm no expert, and all of you software geeks don't laugh at me, but here are some thoughts as I'm not totally familiar with the "system" either.

 

A guy I used to hunt with was a pretty smart dude. Probably why he "used" to hunt with me. Ha! Anyway, he used to think that the program written that randomly issues these numbers for each application or BP might be attracted to a certain group of numbers, series of numbers in a certain order and so on.

 

So if a certain program (or algarithm, as he called it) seemed to "like" the numbers 8,7,20 and 9 better than 4,3,6 and 0, I'd have a pretty good chance at being issued a lower randomly generated number because my birthday is 08/20/1979. Did that make sense? Or, maybe those numbers (or series of numbers) are located in a SS#. Either way, one or both of those two sets of numbers (bday and SS#) is what identifies the application or applicant.

 

This is just a theory. It made sense in my head. But after explaining it to a friend of mine who actually watched how the process took place, he thought I was crazy.

 

I'm with you, Brian. Something doesn't seem right. Maybe it IS an inherent flaw in the program or something. 7-8 yrs with December tags is CRAZY! I've drawn 3 in 18 yrs. Two happened to be back-to-back.

 

That's what I'm saying! It almost has to be something like that. Given the drawing odds on these tags there is no way that it should happen like this. Anyone that has studied random Odds will agree. It has to be something making it happen

[elkhunter]

If you look at az lottery system, there are numbers that are pulled way more often than others, this may be part of someone Ssn or sportsman ID like jake said, In order to figure this out, everyone should post their ssn and tell how many times they drew a dec tag,

 

For personal reasons I choose not to participate in this research ha

 

[tjhunt2]

#1. scenario: There are those who put in for a particular unit they want to hunt and it's that or nothing for them regardless of the odds. That's ok!

 

#2. There are trophy hunters who won't settle for nothing less than a unit that holds a great number of high scoring animals. That's ok!

 

#3. There are those who are just plain lucky in the draw. That's ok!

 

This is just my opinion but I would say those hunters, in scenario 1 & 2, know they are taking a risk of not hunting the critter of their choice that year and have a right to express their opinion about how unfair and ridiculous it is that some people get drawn every year, or the sytem is fixed but, respectfully so, I don't want to hear it and that is my opion.

 

If you truely want to hunt every year you can and will usually draw a pig, deer, or elk tag if you pay attention to the odds and choice of weapon. I don't want to sound like I'm bregging here. I just want to help some of you who want to hunt as bad as I do and can sacrifice scenario 1 & 2.

 

I came here in 1972 from Ohio and had never seen a deer in the wild. It took me a few years to figure out this biggame stuff. It was the year of 1976 that I drew a buffalo, antelope, and took 5 of the big 10 that year. I have never been rejected for deer or pig ever and have drawn the last 24yrs straight for elk.

 

Just don't blame those who have it figured out. As for scenario #3, well they're just lucky I guess.

 

TJ

[GreeneMachine]

Maybe not exactly what your initial post indicated, but if everyone in a family starts young and plays the system, there are ways to get drawn on a more regular basis than the man next door.

 

I'm sure this strategy is no secret, but if I apply unsuccessfully for 10 years and then finally get drawn, then I'm back down to 0 (or I guess 1 or 2 with the hunter ed and loyalty...don't recall if loyalty gets wiped when you draw??). Next year, I put in with my first born who still has 10 points, and now we have an average of 5 or 6 each. Sucks for the son but both of us have a good shot at good hunts. I went from being drawn last year, to having 6 points the next year. We get drawn again, and we both go back to 1 point. The following year, second son in lines turn, and heck, throw grandma in the mix too. You start adding wives and extended family members who don't hunt, then you're talking about keeping an average of 5 or 6 points on a pretty regular basis.

 

Now I know you'd have to pay the $7.50 per BP each year for grandma and the wifey, but I'd gladly pay 10 years of BP's for grandma if that means I can piggyback off her after my points get wiped. And obviously you have to pay for the tag when the group gets drawn, but again, small price to pay to increase your chances (especially for a non-res like me who pays $225 for tag anyways).

[reganranch]

You guys got it all wrong! What they do is put a lot of balls with people's name on them in a huge manatee tank and whatever balls the manatees play with is who gets drawn. I knew someone who found the warehouse and told me, but today he is still missing. Laugh it up guys if you have a tag in your name it will be a great fall.

[azpackhorse]

manatee's don't like my balls

[reganranch]

Swing and a miss with those manatees

[Outdoor Writer]

I have a friend who has an uncle that knows a gal who has a cousin whose brother is the nephew of a guy that works in the offices at AZ game and fish. He sweeps the floor every night and empties the trash cans. Allegedly, a couple years ago he told his nephew, who then relayed it to his brother, who then informed his cousin, who told the gal who emailed my friend who then told me that he had found a letter in one of the trash cans.

 

The letter was from one of the folks in the draw department who had supposedly sent it out to a select group of his friends. In the letter he suggested that they apply using the mail-in system and that they use red ink to fill out the application. That way, he would immediately recognize them so he could be sure to set them aside and assign a low number.

 

 

So there you have it.

[reganranch]

Yeah I know that Janitor he would always solve the differential equation problems left on the chalkboard.

[THE RIFLEMAN]

I find it difficult to believe that the AZ Big Game Draw is the only uncorrupted area of the state government!

Its too easy to get some dirt on some one and too easy to change things around with a few keystrokes....

Any of you that believe its an above boards draw probably voted for "HOPE" & "CHANGE" in the last presidential election!

[THE RIFLEMAN]

I know a group of guys that have drawn December tags the last 7 years out of 8. Would you consider that "luck of the draw?" I think something's haywire there, I could see maybe 4 of those years being extremely lucky but 7?

I'm glad for those guys but come on! That is ridiculous! How can this be? Any thoughts? Do you know anyone with such a record?

Oh ya, forgot to mention that he also drew a rifle Antelope tag in 10, Archery Bull in unit 1, and now a December Coues tag.............whaaat?

And they ALWAYS draw Spring Turkey tags in 27..........I want to hate them but perhaps I should put in with them?????

 

Atribute this kind of luck to clean living!

Dont even consider any other possibilties!

The Az big game draw system is beyond reproach and uncoruptable!

Come on man you know its jus clean living!

Ignore the man behind the curtain HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !!!!

 

Yea right they probably got trail cam pictures of the Governor being indecent/indescrete out in the woods! Smells like blackmail to me!

[Hunterjohnny]

_{Each duck has a name, its really simple.}

[elkhunter]

#1. scenario: There are those who put in for a particular unit they want to hunt and it's that or nothing for them regardless of the odds. That's ok!

 

#2. There are trophy hunters who won't settle for nothing less than a unit that holds a great number of high scoring animals. That's ok!

 

#3. There are those who are just plain lucky in the draw. That's ok!

 

This is just my opinion but I would say those hunters, in scenario 1 & 2, know they are taking a risk of not hunting the critter of their choice that year and have a right to express their opinion about how unfair and ridiculous it is that some people get drawn every year, or the sytem is fixed but, respectfully so, I don't want to hear it and that is my opion.

 

If you truely want to hunt every year you can and will usually draw a pig, deer, or elk tag if you pay attention to the odds and choice of weapon. I don't want to sound like I'm bregging here. I just want to help some of you who want to hunt as bad as I do and can sacrifice scenario 1 & 2.

 

I came here in 1972 from Ohio and had never seen a deer in the wild. It took me a few years to figure out this biggame stuff. It was the year of 1976 that I drew a buffalo, antelope, and took 5 of the big 10 that year. I have never been rejected for deer or pig ever and have drawn the last 24yrs straight for elk.

 

Just don't blame those who have it figured out. As for scenario #3, well they're just lucky I guess.

 

TJ

 

 

Tj- I respect you a whole lot, when I grow up I wanna be like you a javelina, elk and fishing guru! We r moaning And whining on this forum that we do not draw what we want to draw, I can speak for myself and for azpackhorse, our biggest bucks did not come from dec hunts but those oct and nov hunts, we relieve stress by discussing why we did not draw hunts we wanted but we still go hunting in our unit of choice every year, one of those odd things that occur to hunters