What do you think about the BP system?

[Red Rabbit]

Could be wrong but squaring everyones points wont increase anyones odds.

 

 

Squaring bonus points WILL in fact change odds in a big way. For example, say you have two applicants, one with 5 points and one with 10 points. The applicant with 10 points has twice as many points as the applicant with 5 points. Now square both of their points. The applicant with 10 points will now have 100 points and the applicant with 5 points will now have 25 points. So now its 25 to 100 instead of 5 to 10. He now has 4 times more points instead of only double the points. This system would give the applicants with higher bonus points a significant advantage over those with less.

 

-Tracy

I think what you're forgeting is the fact that your total number of points means nothing at all in Arizonas system. Rather it is your point total in comparison to all other applicants. You can square your points all you want but the "order" will stay the same. Those with more points than you will still have more points then you and those with less will still have less.

 

 

 

Squaring bonus points will help those with the most BP, and hinder those with the least, but maybe not to the large degree some would expect.

Setting up a hypothetical case where there are up to 10 BP. One hunter with 10BP, 2 with 9BP, 3 w/ 8BP...10 with 1 BP.

 

With the squaring system, there would be 1210 random numbers generated for the BPs, and only 220 with the current system.

 

A hunter with 7 BP would have 49 of the 1210 numbers and a 4.05% chance of drawing the highest random number with the squared system. In the current system, he would have 7 of 220 numbers, and a 3.18% chance of having the highest random number. So about a 33% better chance of drawing with the squared system.

 

A person with 5 BP would have a 2.07% chance for the highest number in the squared system, and 2.27% in the current.

With 2 BP, 0.33% in the squared, and 0.99% in the current.

 

Note that the % of hunters in each BP group may vary in reality from this hypothetical case.

[AzHunt]

Bonus Point System = FLIM-FLAM-ALLAKAZAM!!!! Super secret magic incantations that result in no logical sense or definable system.....

 

Just my .02 cents....

 

And no, I did not get drawn.....

 

I am not bitter....

 

Much...

[brian390]

I like how Nevada squares their points and I wish Arizona would do the same. With Nevada's squared system everyone still gets a chance, but the person with more points gets a much better chance. I don't like the idea about making early rifle hunts a once in a lifetime opportunity, that would suck.

[coues hunter]

I would like to clarify my previous statement. Squaring points would definatly change the odds of drawing in the second phase 1-2 pass of the drawing in favor of those with higher points. It would not effect the odds in the first phase bonus pass of the drawing.