elkhunter Report post Posted April 10, 2012 Anyone have a copy of the bonus point pool from 2011 elk/lope draw? Thanks! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted April 10, 2012 Bonus Point Reports are linked here, if that is what you are looking for. http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
elkhunter Report post Posted April 10, 2012 Thanks Doug- do they offer this information for each tag? How does one find out how close he is to being in the top 20% of people who applied for a hunt? Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
elkhunter Report post Posted April 10, 2012 shoot- found it, nevermind Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
elkhunter Report post Posted April 10, 2012 Any idea why hunt 2025 and 2026 was not included in the 20% bonus pass PDF file from 2011 year? http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/PronghornandElk-BonusPointReport-BonusPassbyHuntNumber.pdf On page 10 the hunt goes from 2024 to 2027 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted April 10, 2012 Any idea why hunt 2025 and 2026 was not included in the 20% bonus pass PDF file from 2011 year? http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/PronghornandElk-BonusPointReport-BonusPassbyHuntNumber.pdf On page 10 the hunt goes from 2024 to 2027 Those hunts only had 4 & 1 permits, not enough. Five are needed in a hunt to have a permit in the 20% pass. 5 x 0.20 = 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
elkhunter Report post Posted April 10, 2012 crap- wanted to know the bonus point pool for 2026 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted April 10, 2012 look at the 1-2 pass report by hunt number Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Big Browns Report post Posted April 10, 2012 Forgive me for bing stupid, but I dont understand thate abbreviations for the last 3 colums. I want to know what the draw success rate is for having a sertin number of bonus points. Thanks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted April 10, 2012 I want to know what the draw success rate is for having a sertin number of bonus points. Thanks Use the seventh column in the 1-2 pass (success-BPG/Applied-BPG % ) It will give the % chance of being drawn for having a certain number of bonus points. Notice though that the % numbers fluctuate (not changing evenly) since the draw is random, but there is a general trend. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Big Browns Report post Posted April 10, 2012 Great, Thanks for the help! Intresting to see that some units have better draw odds when you have less bonus points. Intresting! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DubTee Report post Posted April 11, 2012 Remember that the odds are better on some hunts with less bonus points due to the large number of applicants in that bonus point group, it is a numbers thing. This is why bonus points need to be squared.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1uglydude Report post Posted April 11, 2012 Remember that the odds are better on some hunts with less bonus points due to the large number of applicants in that bonus point group, it is a numbers thing. This is why bonus points need to be squared.... That doesn't make any sense. If you're saying that a higher percentage of tags may go to the group with less points because of the higher number of applicants, then yes that's true. But that doesn't mean that any individual applicant with fewer points has a greater chance just because he's in that group. If there are 100 tags to give, and 10 guys with 3 points apply and 400 guys with 2 points apply, then chances are most of the tags will go to SOMEONE with 2 points. That doesn't mean that a person with 2 points has greater odds of drawing a tag than someone with 3 points. On some hunts, the odds ARE greater with fewer points because guys with more points end up drawing their second choice in the bonus pass. This is most likely to happen on javelina hunts or some of the early whitetail hunts near the boarder. Squaring points wouldn't solve that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1uglydude Report post Posted April 11, 2012 Remember that the odds are better on some hunts with less bonus points due to the large number of applicants in that bonus point group, it is a numbers thing. This is why bonus points need to be squared.... That doesn't make any sense. If you're saying that a higher percentage of tags may go to the group with less points because of the higher number of applicants, then yes that's true. But that doesn't mean that any individual applicant with fewer points has a greater chance just because he's in that group. If there are 100 tags to give, and 10 guys with 3 points apply and 400 guys with 2 points apply, then chances are most of the tags will go to SOMEONE with 2 points. That doesn't mean that a person with 2 points has greater odds of drawing a tag than someone with 3 points. On some hunts, the odds ARE greater with fewer points because guys with more points end up drawing their second choice in the bonus pass. This is most likely to happen on javelina hunts or some of the early whitetail hunts near the boarder. Squaring points wouldn't solve that. In additiona to the bonus pass issues, you've also got to remember that this particular report doesn't spell out who drew as a first choice, and who drew as a second choice. Nor does it say who drew a first choice on another hunt and wasn't actually considered for a second choice. All you get here is a total number of first and second choice applicants. So, while it may look like a group had better odds with fewer points, that may just mean that a significant number of guys in the group in front of them managed to pull a first choice hunt. There are a lot of variables to consider. In the end, it comes down to luck, but you can increase your odds against house if you attempt to put a reasonable estimate on the unreported variables when you do your math. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan H Report post Posted April 11, 2012 So if I have 20 points for next year what do you think my chances of getting drawn are. I can't open files. I heard it shows you how many other hunters have 20 points. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
