CouesFanatic Report post Posted March 11, 2010 How do I calculate my odds for a hunt? I have 2 bonus points. I forget how to calculate my first and second point chances. If the hunt is, say 75% draw odds and I have two points. My two points is only really going to help if I am in the top bonus point group right? Besides having two chances in the initial pull. So is it incorrect to say that I have 150% chance to draw? If I have a 3 out of 4 chance two times that is still 6/8 or 75% chance. But I don't think that fairly represents my odds. What about my second choice if it is 80% draw? Someone review this with me. Being up at school in another state is making me forget this stuff. You know its bad when you cant remember main streets in the valley anymore! Thankfully i'll be back soon for good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted March 11, 2010 http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CouesFanatic Report post Posted March 11, 2010 I have messed with that but I don't think its correct. The draw odds printed in the Deer Regs don't give me the same percentage as MM does. MM odds with zero bonus points and resident should give me the same odds as the regs,right?, but they don't match. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BowNut Report post Posted March 11, 2010 I just look at it this way I have 8 point and my chances are always SLIM AND NONE!! Good question wish I could answer it for you hope someone can help.The MM link says I have a 32% chance with 8 point and 100% with 9 for my 1st choice looks like I will have a tag for sure next year??? Sure hope so! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tjhunt2 Report post Posted March 11, 2010 I can honestly say I wish each and everyone of you draw your tags of choice this year. Slim and none doesn't sound like good odds Bownut. May the hunting gods pull your tag this year. I know there are those who want an elk tag for a certain unit or nothing at all because there are more trophy elk in them units. You will go years not hunting and that was your choice going into the draw knowing quite well the situation. I feel for each of you but that's your choice. Then there are those who just like to hunt elk and play the odds and get drawn on a regular bases and enjoy the success of drawing frequently. I would rather be in the second catagory. In my opinion it's not holding out for a trophy or else, it's about hunting and sharing the hunt with family and friends each year and that to me outweighs sitting at home sad eyed about not getting drawn again because the trophy is more important to you than the hunt itself. Just my opinion. Good luck to everyone on their antelope and elk tags. TJ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
elecshoc Report post Posted March 11, 2010 First, get a bucket of KFC, then clean them down to the bones. Second, find a nice spot, maybe in one of the power vortexes in Sedona with good ground. Third, throw the bones and what ever percentage of the bones are pointing north to south, well that will be your odds to draw. Good luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
huntingfool Report post Posted March 11, 2010 Haha, I just looked that site up. Since I have 2 points my draw odds are only 5.6% for december 36B WT. BUT, for you gents with 6 or more bonus points, you have 100% draw odds. A slam dunk! Ha ha, what a crock. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoughCut Report post Posted March 11, 2010 Haha, I just looked that site up. Since I have 2 points my draw odds are only 5.6% for december 36B WT. BUT, for you gents with 6 or more bonus points, you have 100% draw odds. A slam dunk! Ha ha, what a crock. That's because the will go in the bonus pass. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mr.smith Report post Posted March 11, 2010 Bonus points don't mean an extra pull in the draw. If you have two points it means you get two extra chances to get a low number from the random number generator. It's not like having two extra tickets in a raffle hopper. Basically they run your name three times and assign the lowest value. (You have to have a basic understanding of how the draw works for any of that to make sense.) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bonecollector Report post Posted March 11, 2010 Just wait 2 more weeks to find out, quit driving yourself nuts on trying to figure out your draw odds! I have 1 point so its easy for me to relax knowing I wont get drawn! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Non-Typical Solutions Report post Posted March 11, 2010 I have a better chance of pissing into the wind and not getting any on me than I do of drawing a tag this year. Thats how I calculate it Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted March 11, 2010 I have messed with that but I don't think its correct. The draw odds printed in the Deer Regs don't give me the same percentage as MM does. MM odds with zero bonus points and resident should give me the same odds as the regs,right?, but they don't match. The average in the printed regs is the average of the first choice applicants for all bonus point groups together. So that average will be higher than for those with 0 BP, and less than for those applicants with the most BP. If you want to use those regs printed %, be sure to take them with elecshoc's KFC chicken bones to a Sedona vortex Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joeybari Report post Posted March 11, 2010 First, get a bucket of KFC, then clean them down to the bones. Second, find a nice spot, maybe in one of the power vortexes in Sedona with good ground. Third, throw the bones and what ever percentage of the bones are pointing north to south, well that will be your odds to draw. Good luck LOL Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joeybari Report post Posted March 11, 2010 I got drawn for early archery bull last year with only 3 points. I also have had 10 bonus points and finally get drawn for general bull. I dont think bonus points matter until you top out or close to. From what I understand, 70% of the draw is pure luck. 20% goes to the people with the highest bonus points, 10% for non-res. Can anyone correct me or verify that? that suckes if thats the case 10% for non-res it sould be more on the 5% non res Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoughCut Report post Posted March 11, 2010 I got drawn for early archery bull last year with only 3 points. I also have had 10 bonus points and finally get drawn for general bull. I dont think bonus points matter until you top out or close to. From what I understand, 70% of the draw is pure luck. 20% goes to the people with the highest bonus points, 10% for non-res. Can anyone correct me or verify that? that suckes if thats the case 10% for non-res it sould be more on the 5% non res It's UP TO 10% for Non-Res... meaning they have to go through the process against all of the residents to draw, but once they are allocated 10% no other tags will be given out to Non-Res. Hypothetically there could be 0 non res tags issued if they are really unlucky. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
