The Draw System

[Red Rabbit]

2006 is the year that permit fees increased.

In 2007, this was the first year that the elk and antelope draws were separate from the deer. Notice the drop in deer applications, likely due to those having drawn elk permits.

 

The numbers are from the HUNT Arizona 2008 book. The 2009 edition is to come out in May, so the 2008 data is not readily available to see what effect the mail-only apps had.

 

General elk applicants

 

2005- 64683

2006- 66873

2007- 65190

 

Bighorn Sheep applicants

 

2005- 11266

2006- 16332

2007- 10630

 

General Deer applicants

 

2005- 83264

2006- 85534

2007- 68625

 

[Red Rabbit]

What would determine what a "premium" elk tag is? What hunts/units/seasons would qualify?

UT has their once in-a-lifetime primo hunts, but has also made it so one can apply for LE elk, antelope and deer species, not just one species as in the past.

 

In that same vein of thought, should AZ antelope permits become a once-in-a-lifetime hunt like bighoern due to their low population and difficult draw odds?

[hawkeye]

I like Colorados preference point system. Your points only count on your first choice. So you dont have to go huntless for 10 or so years like in Arizona while you wait for a tag. You can put in for an easier draw hunt for your second choice and if you get drawn you don't lose your points until you draw your first choice. I have hunted Colorado and it is nice to now how long it will take to draw your primo hunt. They also will give your money back if something happens and you can't make a hunt you were drawn for. You have to apply for a refund before the hunt dates or at least show proof you did not hunt. They really try to work with the sportsmen.

I have no problems with the Arizona draw system either, except I wish they were more open to the publics eye.

 

Hawkeye

[Red Rabbit]

SDR,

One might think that the elk alternative management units could be considered premium. But would early rifle or muzzle-loader hunts in other units like 4B, 16, 21 be "premium"? How about unit 8 with its P&Y NT WR? The P&Y WR typical came from 7W?

 

Would "premium" be based and classified as high-demand like NM? 6A has some high demand/low odds, but not really the best trophy unit. (heck, by looking at the draw odds, most units would be "premium" if based on high demand )

 

As we toss about ideas and discuss ways to improve our system, we may just be picking through the worms in this bait can, but hopefully some positive ideas can result.

 

Increasing the % pass to 50% would:

1) Give permits to a greater number of hunters who have been waiting the longest to draw

2) Shift the system to more like a preference point system so one has a better idea how long it will take to draw a particular hunt

3) decrease the chance that a person draws back to back, or twice in a few years, for premium hunts since fewer permits would be available after the 50% bonus pass draw.

4) still allow a hope/chance for the hunter with few BP to draw.

 

Another issue that probably needs to be addressed, but does not concern most of us, is the effect of the 20% pass and the 10% NR cap on the draw. For certain premium hunt like Kaibab deer and unit 9/10 elk, a NR has no chance to draw unless he or she has max points. Perhaps the 10% NR cap can be split so 5% is available in the bonus pass draw, and the other 5% in the regular draw.

 

Doug~RR

[Red Rabbit]

one thing Utah does to increase odds is limit you to put in for only one premium species or better described one premium hunt. So if you put in for antelope you cannot put in for Elk. You put in for sheep you can't put in for antelope ect ect. Bonus points are accumalated for each species.

 

Bob,

I do not know if you saw or heard about this, but UT changed this year. Being able to put in for more species may be nice, but the efffect is not.

http://www.huntingreport.com/Lance-Staplet....cfm?post_id=14

 

Doug~RR

 

[bobbyo]

one thing Utah does to increase odds is limit you to put in for only one premium species or better described one premium hunt. So if you put in for antelope you cannot put in for Elk. You put in for sheep you can't put in for antelope ect ect. Bonus points are accumalated for each species.

 

Bob,

I do not know if you saw or heard about this, but UT changed this year. Being able to put in for more species may be nice, but the efffect is not.

http://www.huntingreport.com/Lance-Staplet....cfm?post_id=14

 

Doug~RR

 

Doug did not know that. Revenue generation seems to take the place of fairness. I really do think that my proposal to copy the old Utah system has a better chance of spreading the joy for hard to get hunts. Wouldn't most people be happy to have one great "premium" tag a year or at the least every other year . I think it would be the fairest policy for all. I have been incredibly lucky in Arizona's draw system. I study the draw odds like a final exam. I put in for the hunts that have the highest chance for draw. All the units I draw may not have premium animals. In a 15 year period, I would rather hunt 6A bull elk 3 times, then just once for unit 9. That is my choice. Still under the Arizona system my drawing success has far exceeded the odds. I would be for change to make it more fair to all hunters, but realistically, when has a govt agency ever been able to deliver fairness.

Bob

[Red Rabbit]

Pig-tailing on my post about the % pass is the concern about draw and success for youth hunters.

 

I one looks at the draw odds for youth antlerless elk, the draw odds range from 16%-36%. In other words, a kid is going to wait 3-6 years before he or she can draw a permit. As you also knoe, if a kid is not hooked on hunting by age 14-16, you have likely lost him to other activities. So goes out future hunters.

 

Currently G&F sets aside up to 3% of the permits for youth permits (used to be 2%) How about we shift the general elk and deer permits to the youth hunts and raise this percent to 10 % and throw in some bull tags. Lots of kids are attracted to horns also. And if the kid goes hunting, so does Dad to help on the scouting and actual hunt. And I would wager a Mom & Dad would have more thrill through their child's success than their own tag being filled.

 

Currently AZGFD is accepting input regarding the Hunt Guidelines.

http://azgfd.net/artman/publish/NewsMedia/...uidelines.shtml

 

Doug~RR

[Red Rabbit]

There is a lengthy thread on MM about the % pass.

http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforum/DCForumID33/553.html

 

Here was my thought:

 

Several years ago, Dwight Shuh wrote an editorial about "Killing the Dream." It was directed toward the increasingly high cost of nonresident tags. Eventually, the cost may rise to the point where the average Joe could not afford to hunt his dream hunt, whether it be a Dall Sheep hunt in Alaska or an archery bull elk hunt in Arizona. Most hunters dream of being able to go on a special hunt.

The same scenario of KILLING THE DREAM may apply to the quality hunts here in AZ, and raising the % bonus pass may contribute to killing the hope and dream by reducing the chance of being lucky in the draw. As the % is raised, it becomes more like a total preference system as KRP pointed out. After one draws a permit it will take on average 26 years to draw a unit 9 tag where there were 2652 first choice applicants for 100 permits. 24 years in unit 1 as Kent noted. And it does not matter if the pass is 100%, 50%, or 0%, the average to draw will be 26 years between tags is one only applies for unit 9. (I am using first choice numbers as this is where an applicant will place their dream hunt.)

 

Let me throw in a negative about raising the percentage pass. This concerns the youth hunters or first time hunters starting out with no BP. A kid needs to be drawn and to have success to hook him or her into hunting. Putting a kid in for the LO hunts may get him drawn and hunting (as would an OTC tag), but the success/kill part will be lacking. Is Dad and kid going to put in the extra scouting necessary to be successful in these low success hunts?

 

Raising the bonus pass will require that young hunter to wait more years on average to be drawn as it requires more people to have the greatest number of bonus points to draw. He or she in not going to wait 26 years to draw a unit 9 archery bull tag. By raising the %, one has reduced the lucky chance that a youth hunter can beat the odds and draw sooner than what some deem fair. By raising the %, we may be throwing the baby out with the bath water.

 

I agree with Kent that raising the % will only be a temporary fix appeasing those that have been unlucky in the draw and have many BP. After the few with the most have drawn, then the top BP group will have many members. But raising the % pass will moderate the system by awarding tags to the unlucky with the most BP, and reducing the number of tags give to the "lucky" who draw with few BP. This will reduce the detrimental whining against G&F by making the systen more even-handed/fair in some's eyes.

 

As it is now, there are about 80,000 applicants for 20,000 elk tags. So even with the LO hunts included, there is an average 4 years between tags.

 

Doug~RR

[nmelk13]

I know NM has there problems but to be honest AZ should scrap the BP's. Take 10% of the tags for unguided nr's and 5% for guided then the 85% goes to residents. Striaght up throw your app in the hat and draw. Pay all fees upfront. I couldnt stand it if I had to wait as long as you all do to draw a tag. That stinks!! Just my 2 cents

[Non-Typical Solutions]

Here is how we try to beat the odds....lots of kids, apply seperately and hope you all don't get drawn for different unit same time of year.

 

Remembering the day in New Mexico where you could buy a deer tag over the counter and hunt pretty much anywhere in the state was fun, but not realistic in this day and age and may not have been right back then.

 

Thanks for the info though, from those of you crunching the numbers, definitely makes you think twice before filling out the apps., I preferred online applications, but that is because I am a prolific procrastinator.

[coues krazy]

I know NM has there problems but to be honest AZ should scrap the BP's. Take 10% of the tags for unguided nr's and 5% for guided then the 85% goes to residents. Striaght up throw your app in the hat and draw. Pay all fees upfront. I couldnt stand it if I had to wait as long as you all do to draw a tag. That stinks!! Just my 2 cents

 

If you want fair, it doesnt get any more fair than this. Best option I have heard yet.

[krp]

There were 81,213 apps for 25,446 elk tags. 2008

 

That's 162,426 choices in the draw if every one put a 1st and 2nd choice down.

 

So roughly 25,000 for 160,000.

 

In unit 1 archery bull more than 1/2 the applicants (713) in the top half BP groups, 7 thru 14 BPs, chose this hunt as their 2nd choice. 16 of 30 20% pass pool tags went to 2nd choicers. The 13 and 14 BPers were ship jumpers or they would have drawn in 2007 in the max pool.

 

The top half BP groups recieved 73 of 150 tags with about 6600 chances in the draw

 

The bottom half BP groups, 0 thru 6 BPs, recieved 77 of 150 tags with over 17,000 chances in the draw.

 

6600 choices against 17,000+ and still get about 1/2 the tags. That's somehow not enough? Especially to such diehard, wait so long, oopps I got my 2nd choicers/ ship jumpers.

 

The more open and flexable the system the more opportunity for others to be knocked out of your BP pool and up your odds down the road by their own choice. The second choicers that drew a unit 1 20% pass tag were close to being a big player in whatever unit they put for 1st choice, now they're not anymore uping the odds of those dedicated to that hunt. This works down even for those that only put in for nonpopular bull and cow hunts.

 

If you up the pass % you stiffen up the system and cause each BP group to take 2 or 3 years to pass before another will move into the max pool. Less tags for people to fall by the wayside including cow tags with this system.

 

To understand a little how fluctuating people are coming in and out of the system is consider this. There are 206,638 indidviduals with BPs for elk as of 2008 and only 81,000 applied, where are all the rest, they had to have applied in the last 3 yrs or would have lost their BPs.

 

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/pdfs/BonusP...all2008Draw.pdf

 

I added them up, maybe I'm missing something.

 

If you want true change you will need to somehow reduce the number of choices per hunt choice.

 

3700 1st and 2nd choices in unit 1 and 150 tags. How many are Hail Mary throwers and then choose a easy to draw hunt second, how many put their kids and wives and grandparents with 2 bps in just in case. How many put it down as 2nd choice with a descent number of BPs effecting both 1st and 2nd choice hunter pools.

 

What if you cut out the 2nd choice in the first round?

 

3700 goes down to 2000 maybe lower, only those that are serious about your hunt will compete with you, if they want to put in with 2 bps at least they are serious and more power to them.

 

Since most bull tags would be gone in the first round, no one is going to take to much of a chance if they really would rather have a late rifle tag instead of waiting 9 years for your tag. Those wanting just cow tags don't have the 'Oh I'll settle for your cow hunt 2nd choicer either'. I know plenty of people that only put in cow hunts. All you lose is your Hail Mary shot but so does everyone else.

 

2nd choice would be it's own round and would use up your bps, if you only want a decent or great bull tag then just pass on this.

 

3,4,5 choice would be for some LO tags or whatever's left, if drawn no bps taken, you could put a 1st no 2nd and a 3,4,5 to keep your bps.

 

No need to designate premium tags, they will automatically only appeal to those willing to wait it out.

 

If you want a waiting period (I don't) use BPs. You need 3 bps to be drawn for anything but a BP, hunter safety bp means 2 yrs, HS and L bps mean 1 year wait.

 

When Az first went to a draw they had a 1st and 2nd choice to even the field, then they added the BPs to even the field, now that Bps have matured the 2 processes seem to be fighting against each other. One needs to go.

 

Kent

 

 

 

[RoughCut]

I always try to avoid this conversation as it can get pretty hairy. But a few comments I want to make. If we could fast forward 30 years from now are we gonna see people with 38 bonus points for elk. The simple math suggests that FACT there are too many applicants for too few tags. The bonus point system will slowly deteriorate over time. Those who got on the bus early with bonus point will reap the rewards.

 

One day when there are 600 applicants with max bonus points it will be completely useless. Game and fish will have dug their grave. What are they gonna do purge the bonus points? Imagine the uproar.

 

I personally think the bonus pass is a terrible idea. Right intentions but not gonna work for the reason stated above. woopty doo if you have 17 bp's and the next guy has 16, you essentially have no advantage over him UNLESS you are in the bonus pass.

 

Or perhaps the system is perfect and we just have too many whiners. If you have 19 bp's and don't get drawn year after year, "get over it" If you choose to play the powerball don't whine if you don't win. There are Plenty of amazing hunts that you can be sure to draw with 19.

 

The problem is that the bonus point system is really over-rated and people expect too much from it.

 

I think you guys are right. New Mexico knows what they are doing. No gripes. Everyone gets an equal shot. Nobody gets punished for joining the hunting game late.

 

Also Like NM, maybe it would be a great idea to designate premium units, dissallowing those who have recently drawn from putting in for a premium hunt for a given amount of time.

[DubTee]

Good topic, although with my limited brain capacity, tough for me to understand all the numbers. Took me about an hour to read through that MM link that RR posted, then my battery on my computer died so I couldn't respond while questions were fresh in my mind. KRP, I am intrigued by your idea to scrap the first/second choice and make people decide on a first and only choice for first pass consideration, but I'm not smart enough to figure out what that would do down the road. I also like the current bonus pass system as well, I think those who waited the longest deserve a tag. Although I'm not real familiar with NM system (sounds like a straight lottery), what about Nevada's system, don't they square the points thus giving a person with 10 points a significantly better chance (4x rather than 2x) than a person with 5? What about this, maybe keep the 20% pass (maybe even move it to 25%), and square points for the second pass. Those who waited the longest still get first dibs, and I would think by squaring points, the upper 50% of point holders would get more of the tags on the second pass (I believe it is currently around 50/50 between who normally gets the tags, upper 50% and lower), and those in the lower 50% still have a shot of drawing each year. I think I would hate to see a preference point system here (don't want to wait that long for "premium" hunts) and a straight lottery system just seems too random for me. Can anyone tell me how long the average wait between good unit bull tags in NM is for a resident, just curious, also how does that compare with number of people applying compared to number of tags available, just to give me a reference to compare to AZ?

[krp]

Dubtee, I'm not saying I'm right with my suggestion, just that if there needs to be change then actually change it. Forget the math, the more I tried to show wheither or not a change in % pass will make much of a difference, the more I realised 3700 apps - 150 tags still = 3550, no matter the pass%. That was a brainstorming thread that evolved, at least for me.

 

I belong to the 'Ugly tag crew', maybe the only good thing that came out of that thread, and have no tags in this fight, myself.

 

As I was going over the numbers again and again, I noticed some trends, no way anyone can figure a 100% path.

 

Why had the top pool in unit 1 dropped to 11 bps to get in? Shouldn't it be like 20.

Why are there more 2nd choice picks in the top half BP pools in all but 2 or 3 premium hunts.

The 2nd choice picks are drawing more tags in the max pool than first choice.

The lower half bp pools control a powerful advantage in bps and yet are considered interlopers if they happen to draw a tag.

Why is someone that has been putting in for tags for 15 yrs without drawing when they know the odds, suddenly have a guaranteed option over me that have been hunting and paying fees for 40 yrs wheither I've drawn or not shouldn't matter, I've spent more money. (this last was said tounge-in-cheek, and is the unreasonable argument for their unreasonableness).

Maybe the more a system shakes and jumps, not locked in, the easier it moves downhill, throwing off the waste and gaining speed. Again how come unit 1 is only at 11 bps max pool.

Maybe we need to go back to the 10% to get it shaking more and help our NR applicants at the same time.

50% pass will make every hunt a PP system for NRs, not just the premium hunts.

50% pass will not lower the max point bp pool and only creep it upwards.

I don't kmow why the 20% pass is not skyrocketing upwards, I can only look at the trend it's moving on now.

 

The 1st choice only draw will take out half of the choices in the first draw. 80,000 instead of 160,000.

Take out the 2nd choice and Hail Mary throwers out of each hunt choice and cut those numbers in half on average.

Getting 1900 through a proccess is much easier than getting 3700 through.

You will only compete with those that are serious for the tag as you are, premium or cow tag, if you're serious about it you don't want everyone and their grandma in with you.

If you want to jump in with only a few bps for a premium hunt, more power to ya, at least you're risking something.

1st choice only would have knocked the max pool to 9 in unit 1 instead of 11. Don't know how long that trend will last but should cont for awhile.

Should help those that want to draw a cow tag on their first choice.

 

I'm not saying I have the answers but have looked at it harder than most and at least tried to answer the question about a 50% pass.

 

I don't even care if they change anything, except for the NRs problem and tweeking the youth tags a little. I'll get my 'Ugly tags' consistantly and work hard to make them successful.

 

Kent