Schmitty Report post Posted March 29, 2009 Great post Doug! Personally, I like the draw the way it is, there is always a glimmer of chance for a bull tag for those without many points. I always pick an early bull archery hunt as my 1st choice and a much easier to draw cow tag as my #2 choice. This keeps me in the woods hunting elk about every other year or so, which is what a guy should expect considering the cow tags usually have a 40-50% draw rate. In 22 years of hunting AZ, I've only drawn one bull tag (last year with two points), I caught alot of crap for pulling a premium tag with only two points. However, it was my only bull tag in 20 plus years of playing the game. I'm still waiting on my first antelope, sheep and buff tags. good luck to everybody this coming fall! Schmitty Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Arizona Griz Report post Posted March 29, 2009 Great post Doug! Personally, I like the draw the way it is, there is always a glimmer of chance for a bull tag for those without many points. As do I. Kind of hard to fix a wheel that is not broken. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted March 29, 2009 Chad, If there was a preference system, the average would be 4 years for each tag for all hunts including premium bull to limited opportunity cow. Yes, I doubt 2600 would be holding out for a unit 9 archery bull tag for 27 years, but I bet it would still require one to count the years on their toes before being drawn if a preference system was installed. If one bails from the unit 9 choice for a different hunt, that person would never get a chance to hunt 9. Our present system offers that chance. For every person that changes and applies for an easier draw, the chance to draw the easier hunt becomes harder. Utah has its hunts set up where 50% of the permits go to those with the most BP, iirc. As I said in my post, I would like to see the % bonus pass increased. What is a fair % for those unlucky at the top, and still gives hope for those with few BP? Nevada's squaring of the points tends to make it too much like a preference point system, imo. If this route was taken, an exponent less than 2, say x^1.5 would be better. I think our 20% pass was an attempt to fix a broken wheel, but some spokes still need attention. Doug Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snapshot Report post Posted March 29, 2009 Great job on the math and figuring everything out Doug! It sheds alot of light on what effect any changes in the draw would have. The draw system has always been a sore spot with alot of people, and the opinions are widely varied, based on how lucky a person is in the draw. I have always been an advocate of the Preference point system, as it makes those that draw a tag have to go to the back of the line the next year and wait their turn again, but after reviewing Doug's math on the P.P, I am not so sure that is the answer to have any reasonable opportunity to hunt before we reach an age when we can no longer hunt. With hunters far outnumbering available permits, maybe a 3 year waiting period for successful applicants would be a better choice even if it only increases draw odds by 5% plus or minus? There will never be one cure all system for the draw. Too many hunters, too few quality permits. I was shocked when I found out that I drew my second choice Bull elk this year., I did not expect to get drawn. I had 5 points. I did not call G&F one time prior to March 27th to check for draw results, as getting too hyped up about the draw can just lead up to a huge letdown. I am not one of the lucky ones that draws a tag frequently. In 20 years applying for Elk, this is my 4th tag wich equates to 20% draw success in the timeframe I have been applying Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
coues krazy Report post Posted March 29, 2009 Great post Doug! Personally, I like the draw the way it is, there is always a glimmer of chance for a bull tag for those without many points. As do I. Kind of hard to fix a wheel that is not broken. x3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
June Report post Posted March 29, 2009 Red Rabbit, you are right I am not sure there is a way to make things better, I guess some people just have all the luck.....All I know is I am not going to lose all my bonus points for a cow hunt...guess we will give r heck again next year and hope to end the drought.. As long as someone in the family gets drawn thats all that matters.... Switchback, I ran into a perturb fellow in the Alpine laundry mat last year that was on his cow hunt. Why was he upset. He told me he let his buddy put them in for the draw and he put their last choice for cow. He then told me they both had 13 bonus points. . I kinda gathered my clothes and left. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
30-378shtr Report post Posted March 30, 2009 That sucks for that guy!! That's exactly why you always do your own apps! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
elkaholic Report post Posted March 30, 2009 hello - I'm glad someone can figure out the draw process and explain it - even if I'm still confused - i guess i can get picked early but since a percentage hasn't drawn yet i get trown back in the mix with a different # - how messed up is that - and may not get picked agin - now I'm really confused ! - winners are celebrating- losers aren't , it's that simple ! congradulations to all who were success full - except that one guy who stated " i only got drew one tag "- like that isn't enough ! - Gary Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tjhunt2 Report post Posted March 30, 2009 Great post Doug! Personally, I like the draw the way it is, there is always a glimmer of chance for a bull tag for those without many points. As do I. Kind of hard to fix a wheel that is not broken. There is nothing wrong with the way it is. TJ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tines Report post Posted March 30, 2009 Doug, So, by increasing the BP "pass" %, essentially you're making it harder for those who drew the year before to draw again? I think most of us have the same idea that there needs to be some tweaking here and there..... I understand, you can't make everyone happy. I feel bad for even speaking my mind as it seems to take away from excitement of those who were successful in the draw. To those, I apologize. Not everyone's story is the same.... That being said, cherish the one you drew cause it may not be another 15 yrs until you draw it again like MANY have and are waiting...... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snapshot Report post Posted March 30, 2009 Great post Doug! Personally, I like the draw the way it is, there is always a glimmer of chance for a bull tag for those without many points. As do I. Kind of hard to fix a wheel that is not broken. There is nothing wrong with the way it is. TJ Thats because you are a lucky ducky! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tjhunt2 Report post Posted March 30, 2009 Great post Doug! Personally, I like the draw the way it is, there is always a glimmer of chance for a bull tag for those without many points. As do I. Kind of hard to fix a wheel that is not broken. There is nothing wrong with the way it is. TJ Thats because you are a lucky ducky! Yes I am and I do feel bad for those who didn't draw. I have always played the odds and the elk Gods have been good to me. TJ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snapshot Report post Posted March 30, 2009 Great post Doug! Personally, I like the draw the way it is, there is always a glimmer of chance for a bull tag for those without many points. As do I. Kind of hard to fix a wheel that is not broken. There is nothing wrong with the way it is. TJ Thats because you are a lucky ducky! Yes I am and I do feel bad for those who didn't draw. I have always played the odds and the elk Gods have been good to me. TJ Next year I am going to send you my Elk application and let you rub it for a few minutes before I send it in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coues 'n' Sheep Report post Posted March 30, 2009 I think we have this conversation every year.... ....we are all butt hurt cuz we didn't draw. I, however, do support the old 3 year wait system... actually I think it would need to opperate as a 5 BP system..... 1 hunter Ed point, 1 Loyalty point, and 3 BP's, before you were eligible for a tag.... this would do several things.... It would stop us from wanting to Murder those who draw back to back or 2 out of 3 years.... and although it would not solve all the problems it would help a lot on elk.... there are a bunch of good units that a guy almost count on drawing every third year if hundreds of hunters were back on the waiting list. Your 1% and 2% draw odd units won't be affected much but there are a bunch of 10% plus draw odds units that would give you the chance to hunt more regularly....IMO. I have a hunch that the Anti's that apply might spend there money else where if they had to build 5 BP's before they could take a tag from us! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bobbyo Report post Posted March 30, 2009 Utah has its hunts set up where 50% of the permits go to those with the most BP, iirc. As I said in my post, I would like to see the % bonus pass increased. What is a fair % for those unlucky at the top, and still gives hope for those with few BP? Doug Doug one thing Utah does to increase odds is limit you to put in for only one premium species or better described one premium hunt. So if you put in for antelope you cannot put in for Elk. You put in for sheep you can't put in for antelope ect ect. Bonus points are accumalated for each species. If this was done here you could designate any hunt that has under 10 % draw odds as a premium hunt and have the other higher than 10% draw odds as regular hunts having actually two draws.. All late whitetail, Kaibab-Strip mule, Bull elk , Antelope, hunts as premium and allow all hunters to pick only one of these to enter. If you don't get drawn you are eligible to enter the regular hunt draw, but if drawn lose all bonous points for that species in the premium hunt. Which would clear many bonus points.. This would spread out the draw and increase odds for the one premium tag, and still have a chance to hunt by being drawn in the regular hunt. Still Unit 9 would be a 20 year hunt, but 8 may only be 5 years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
