How long until cards are hit??

[Chef]

1 hour ago, Siwash said:

Anyone get a crane hit? 

I got hit for crane at approximately 8:54AM today.

[AzDiamondHeat]

I'm calling shenanigans.

My group has 7 people that put in for a historically 98% draw hunt. In 10 years we have been 100% successful with as many as 12 tags in camp. NOBODY has ever missed a tag on this hunt. So far ZERO of us have a card hit. 

Possible? yes. Statistically improbable though. 

I don't think it is over. Either that or ALL of us have the same bank and is just really slow to report (never been so before)

 

 

[firstcoueswas80]

My group has 6. All for southern Az Coues, including my son for juniors hunts. 0 hits. Something isn't adding up. 

[bonecollector]

2 hours ago, Davek said:

Could it be that the early hits are part of the Bonus pass?

Hope not, I should be in the bonus pass for the unit I put in for.

[AZBIG10]

44 minutes ago, AzDiamondHeat said:

I'm calling shenanigans.

My group has 7 people that put in for a historically 98% draw hunt. In 10 years we have been 100% successful with as many as 12 tags in camp. NOBODY has ever missed a tag on this hunt. So far ZERO of us have a card hit. 

Possible? yes. Statistically improbable though. 

I don't think it is over. Either that or ALL of us have the same bank and is just really slow to report (never been so before)

 

 

It’s called the newberg affect.

[MogollonMan]

If you didn't get the tags you THOUGHT were a lock, it is because you didn't take into account the new pass that now preceeds the bonus point pass. I don't think the official name was announced, but it has been dubbed by some of us as the "The Social Influnecer" pass. In this pass, much like with bonus points, tags are alloted to individuals accourding to your number of social media followers. AZGFD's new program since they aren't paying these guys anymore. We will be seeing a lot more of Newberg and the Hushin crew this year. You all need to be taking a lot more selfies with Mountain Ops, Mountain House meals, and tucking your ears into your hats.

[Hoss50]

We have like 6 apps out and none hit so far. A couple are long shot, but geez I hope I can at least hit a Turkey tag or junior javelina or deer tag for my kid. 

Wife Deer - Long shot

My Deer - long shot

Junior javelina 

Junior Deer

Turkey

Sandhill Crane

Nothing yet...come on...its for the kids...🤣

[idgaf]

19 minutes ago, MogollonMan said:

If you didn't get the tags you THOUGHT were a lock, it is because you didn't take into account the new pass that now preceeds the bonus point pass. I don't think the official name was announced, but it has been dubbed by some of us as the "The Social Influnecer" pass. In this pbutt, much like with bonus points, tags are alloted to individuals accounding to your number of social media followers. AZGFD's new program since they aren't paying these guys anymore. We will be seeing a lot more of Newberg and the Hushin crew this year. You all need to be taking a lot more selfies with Mountain Ops, Mountain House meals, and tucking your ears into your hats.

I would do it, but they dont make hats that big to tuck my ears in. 

[yotebuster]

I think it’s over.  New era of point creep both resident and NR.  It creates a snowball.  Leftover tags drying up lead to guys changing their app plans which lead to 100% odds tags become not so in a hurry.  

[Eli]

I’ve still not seen any sheep hits anywhere, which is odd to me so I’m not convinced. We got hit at 4pm in the elk draw so who knows

[verdehunter]

Every application period there are record applications submitted. The 100% odds cannot be sustained by that. Units that you could draw every year or two will become every 3-5 years. Look at the influx of people in the forest just in general throughout the year when covid started. It trickles down to hunting. How many new gun owners were there after covid started? AZ is becoming increasingly more populated. 

[azcouesandelk]

8 minutes ago, yotebuster said:

I think it’s over.  New era of point creep both resident and NR.  It creates a snowball.  Leftover tags drying up lead to guys changing their app plans which lead to 100% odds tags become not so in a hurry.  

I could believe that over time but when the majority of those hunts were 95% odds last year it seems highly unlikely all these folks wouldn’t be drawn. I know close to 20 people who haven’t been hit for October or early November coues tags with 2 points. Also know a non resident with 9 points who hasn’t been hit for an easier to draw December tag

[SwarovskiCoues]

8 minutes ago, yotebuster said:

I think it’s over.  New era of point creep both resident and NR.  It creates a snowball.  Leftover tags drying up lead to guys changing their app plans which lead to 100% odds tags become not so in a hurry.  

but where are the sheep tags

[Bucks N Bulls]

Also when there has been a couple hundred leftover muzzy tags. And not 1 single app out of 5 of us didn't hit that. I don't think so

[Curtis Reed]

our whole camp has 7 people on solo apps (most with 2 BP) all for 1st or 2nd pick on a southern hunt that had 100% draw as long as i’ve been hunting down there. No one from camp got cards hit yet. that’s statistically impossible if the draw is done. the draw hasn’t been fully run yet.