Limited entry calls

[elkhutnaz]

Should be Wednesday 

[Coues247]

Odds are about as good as drawing a unit 22 sheep tag with 2 points. 

[azcouesandelk]

16 minutes ago, Coues247 said:

Odds are about as good as drawing a unit 22 sheep tag with 2 points. 

That’s statistically impossible. These tags are are approximately 0.05%

[Coues247]

Ok, I take it back. Odds for these tags are about 5 times worse than a 22 sheep tag. Good luck. 

[yotebuster]

8 hours ago, Coues247 said:

Ok, I take it back. Odds for these tags are about 5 times worse than a 22 sheep tag. Good luck. 

You realize you can’t get worse than a 0% chance right?  

[Coues247]

1 hour ago, yotebuster said:

You realize you can’t get worse than a 0% chance right?  

You realize drawing a unit 22 sheep tag with less than max isn't a 0% chance right? It's statistically about 0% but it's not 0%. Enough crazy things happen and it can be drawn. Especially now that the top point group is down to 2 and the next group has 114 people. Majority of those 114 people aren't going to try for 22. There's roughly 30 tags in the bonus pass and if all 30 of those tags were to go to other hunts then 22 would be open to a random draw tag. Insanely low odds of it happening but it's not 0%

[Newbie2012]

Bet they called everyone yesterday.  They said week of the 17th. Wouldn't take more than 10 minutes to get 6 people called. 

[yotebuster]

4 hours ago, Coues247 said:

You realize drawing a unit 22 sheep tag with less than max isn't a 0% chance right? It's statistically about 0% but it's not 0%. Enough crazy things happen and it can be drawn. Especially now that the top point group is down to 2 and the next group has 114 people. Majority of those 114 people aren't going to try for 22. There's roughly 30 tags in the bonus pass and if all 30 of those tags were to go to other hunts then 22 would be open to a random draw tag. Insanely low odds of it happening but it's not 0%

I guess maybe I’m misunderstood but don’t they do the 80/20 split based on all sheep tags and not just within each unit since there’s so few of them.  So I was under the understanding that all tags drawn in 22 went to the max point pool every year.  Maybe I’m wrong on that one.  

[desertmafia21]

A buddy of a buddy got the call yesterday for the 28,31,32,37a,37b muley tag. If you didn’t get a call…better luck next time.

[azcouesandelk]

5 hours ago, Coues247 said:

You realize drawing a unit 22 sheep tag with less than max isn't a 0% chance right? It's statistically about 0% but it's not 0%. Enough crazy things happen and it can be drawn. Especially now that the top point group is down to 2 and the next group has 114 people. Majority of those 114 people aren't going to try for 22. There's roughly 30 tags in the bonus pass and if all 30 of those tags were to go to other hunts then 22 would be open to a random draw tag. Insanely low odds of it happening but it's not 0%

There hasn’t been a 22 tag drawn outside of max point pool for over 10 years, so the odds are 0%

[Coues247]

44 minutes ago, azcouesandelk said:

There hasn’t been a 22 tag drawn outside of max point pool for over 10 years, so the odds are 0%

I've never won the lottery and buy a ticket every week so the odds are 0%. (Same line of thinking) and still doesn't change the facts that the odds aren't 0%. Good try though.

[Coues247]

1 hour ago, yotebuster said:

I guess maybe I’m misunderstood but don’t they do the 80/20 split based on all sheep tags and not just within each unit since there’s so few of them.  So I was under the understanding that all tags drawn in 22 went to the max point pool every year.  Maybe I’m wrong on that one.  

You are correct on how they do it. It's 80/20 split between all tags. Now don't get me wrong it would take some crazy luck but it would still be possible for 22 to be drawn in the random. There's 2 residents with max and 114 in the next level down. Let's say 115 for max point group. There's about 150 sheep tags. 30 go to bonus pass. Of those guys at the top point groups not all are trying for 22. I can see from last year's report 25 guys in the top two point groups tried for 22. That leaves approximately 90 other guys up there trying for other hunts. Say the draw is run and for some crazy reason 30 of those 90 guys are pulled first and they give the 30 bonus pass tags away withiut 22 being drawn then 22 is available in the random draw. The odds are incredibly small of that happening but they aren't 0 which is my point. Similar odds to pulling one of these limited entry hunts.

[azcouesandelk]

17 minutes ago, Coues247 said:

I've never won the lottery and buy a ticket every week so the odds are 0%. (Same line of thinking) and still doesn't change the facts that the odds aren't 0%. Good try though.

So if there are 2 tags for a hunt and both tags go in the bonus pass what are the odds of drawing in the random draw?  
 

I understand the 80/20 split but when you have 25% or more of the “max pool” applicants in for 1 hunt they will never let that hunt go to someone outside of the max pool. 

[Coues247]

11 minutes ago, azcouesandelk said:

So if there are 2 tags for a hunt and both tags go in the bonus pass what are the odds of drawing in the random draw?  
 

I understand the 80/20 split but when you have 25% or more of the “max pool” applicants in for 1 hunt they will never let that hunt go to someone outside of the max pool. 

IF there's 2 tags and IF they go in the bonus pass then obviously odds of going in the random are 0. But just because in the past both tags have gone in the bonus pass doesn't make it certain that it will go in the bonus pass in the future. (See example above). The odds are extremely high that they do go in the bonus pass but not a 100% guarantee. Especially now that there are 114 people in the next group below the 2 max point holders. Most of those guys are getting old and applying for other tags not wanting to compete for the 2 tags in 22. They'd rather hunt somewhere than die trying for 22. ( Don't get me wrong I'm on your side that the odds are it never happens but it's not 0. Simply showing that odds of one of these limited entry tags is also about 0.)

[Curtis Reed]

My friend’s son got the call yesterday and got a tag. He sent me screen shot of follow up email. 

The one he drew is a tough hunt for sure.