2022 draw question

[JLW]

Got a question on the up coming draw. 

If I read this right, 6 people with 10 group bonus points; all residents drew the 3A/3C October tag.

My wife and I have 10bp each. 

What are the chances we draw this tag in the bonus pass? Will there be a point creep?

I know it's early, just trying to see if we need to think about alternate plans.

Thanks,

jlw

 

[Redman]

If I am reading TopRut correctly.... 26% in the Bonus Pass and 9.8% in the Random- hard to tell on point creep as applicants can shift from one unit to the next 

Hope this helps

[JLW]

1 hour ago, Redman said:

If I am reading TopRut correctly.... 26% in the Bonus Pass and 9.8% in the Random- hard to tell on point creep as applicants can shift from one unit to the next 

Hope this helps

it does

thank you!

jlw

[Northern Pintail]

You’re both looking at it wrong.  You have 10 points this year but you had 9 last year so you have to look at those numbers. If everything stays the same (it won’t) you won’t draw in the bonus pass.  15 tags go to residents in the bonus pass.  There were 17 people who had 10 points and had it as a second choice.   Not all of them drew their first choice.  Then at your point level (9) there were 39 people who were in the bonus pass.  No idea how many drew.  
 

but you’re not a guarantee to draw in the bonus pass.  

[bonecollector]

He didnt say it was a guarantee draw in the bonus pass, he is saying its a 26% chance of drawing in the bonus pass with 10 pts.

[jdown]

Hate to be the old guy, but I think it was more fun when you just put in for shoot and either got a tag or pink slip in the mail. Now it's work to stay ahead only to get further behind.  

[Redman]

2 hours ago, Northern Pintail said:

You’re both looking at it wrong.  You have 10 points this year but you had 9 last year so you have to look at those numbers. If everything stays the same (it won’t) you won’t draw in the bonus pass.  15 tags go to residents in the bonus pass.  There were 17 people who had 10 points and had it as a second choice.   Not all of them drew their first choice.  Then at your point level (9) there were 39 people who were in the bonus pass.  No idea how many drew.  
 

but you’re not a guarantee to draw in the bonus pass.  

It took 10 points to get into the Bonus Pass last year ... so isn't the same EDIT - it took 9

JLW PM your email and I can email the TopRut info you like 

[yotebuster]

 

Looks like you’re about 2 years behind on that one.  

[behlftball]

Good Luck

[Northern Pintail]

16 hours ago, bonecollector said:

He didnt say it was a guarantee draw in the bonus pass, he is saying its a 26% chance of drawing in the bonus pass with 10 pts.

Which is incorrect.   You don’t use your current points to determine what your odds are.  You can only determine what your odds were last year at the point level you were at last year.  You can do some math and take and educated guess on this year if nothing changes (point levels of applicants, no one jumps from a different unit, etc)

[Northern Pintail]

These 3c rifle deer tags some what confuse me.  Kiabab early and late tags are at about the same point level so why would someone pick 3c over the kiabab.  

[Roosevelt Mark]

Lots of reasons. 

[JLW]

here's to some luck! 

jlw

[StickFlicker]

On 3/17/2022 at 7:58 AM, Northern Pintail said:

Kiabab early and late tags are at about the same point level so why would someone pick 3c over the kiabab.  

Because it's closer for most hunters, for one reason, for the hunt and possible scouting trips.

[JSR]

Is that the Jacob Lake gas station? 😂