AZ; Ready to Rumble?

[Edge]

50 minutes ago, zslayer said:

Crazy the amount of rain you guys have been getting down there!  
 

Has anyone heard if AZ is officially out of drought yet?

The drought has been a decades old cycle. Hopefully the cycle had reached its apex.

 

[NOTAGS]

One year of  summer rain won’t end our drought.  We need rain, and a hellacious snowpack this winter throughout their Rockies and AZ to fill our reservoirs .  It will help our forests for sure, if the state doesn’t wash into Mexico after all the fire damage.

[Edge]

1 hour ago, NOTAGS said:

One year of  summer rain won’t end our drought.  We need rain, and a hellacious snowpack this winter throughout their Rockies and AZ to fill our reservoirs .  It will help our forests for sure, if the state doesn’t wash into Mexico after all the fire damage.

Absolutely correct. I believe our regional snow pack has only been 30% of typical years.

[PRDATR]

1 hour ago, Edge said:

Absolutely correct. I believe our regional snow pack has only been 30% of typical years.

I don't think we have a good snow pack for at least five years or more.

[HorseHunter]

Just got back from Flag and have never seen that stretch of desert (above Cordes Lakes) with so much green tall grass on I-17. I hope whoever has the grazing lease makes the most of it! 

 

[Yuma Outdoorsman]

39 minutes ago, HorseHunter said:

Just got back from Flag and have never seen that stretch of desert (above Cordes Lakes) with so much green tall grass on I-17. I hope whoever has the grazing lease makes the most of it! 

 

I saw a ton of grass along the shoulder of HWY 95 between Yuma and Quartzsite last week. HWY 95 is notorious for deer being hit. All I could think about was how many would get hit this season fall feeding along the road. Hopefully the desert being green keeps them off the road. 
 

This was a buck that just got hit a couple weeks ago.

[HorseHunter]

1 hour ago, Yuma Outdoorsman said:

I saw a ton of grass along the shoulder of HWY 95 between Yuma and Quartzsite last week. HWY 95 is notorious for deer being hit. All I could think about was how many would get hit this season fall feeding along the road. Hopefully the desert being green keeps them off the road. 
 

 

I noticed plenty in the median between the N & S bound lanes too and thought about the same thing. should be good for the speed goat herd up on the mesa too. 

When I see that much green I think of food for the deer, elk, cattle, etc. then I think of fuel for the next seasons wildfires as things heat back up. 

[Swivelhead]

Buddy sent me a link to a list of notable AZ storms from the 20th century. 

 https://www.weather.gov/psr/Arizona_historic_storms

 I remember most of these storms starting with the snowstorm(s) December of 1967.  My parents has just finished building a small home near Alpine.  Many homes in the area collapsed due to the massive snow load.  Fortunately, my parents home survived the storm.  The Labor Day storm of 1970 produced about 4-5" of hail on the ground at Alpine.  My brothers and I broke out sleds and a toboggan, had a blast!  Hopefully AZ can get back to a wet cycle.  A wet monsoon is great but we really need a consistent winter snowpack to break this drought.

A link to a visual of the 1993 Verde river flood: 

 

[654321]

Unfortunately right now they're predicting an La Nina pattern which is usually dry and warmer than normal winter. 

[Edge]

1 hour ago, 654321 said:

Unfortunately right now they're predicting an La Nina pattern which is usually dry and warmer than normal winter. 

 wx forecasters are professional liars, I went back and Googled the NOAAs  monsoon prediction for us this current season...this is from just 10 weeks ago lol.

“A drier than normal Southwest monsoon season is slightly favored for 2021,” Scott Handel, lead meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction

 

[My Rights As An American]

2 hours ago, Edge said:

 wx forecasters are professional liars, I went back and Googled the NOAAs  monsoon prediction for us this current season...this is from just 10 weeks ago lol.

“A drier than normal Southwest monsoon season is slightly favored for 2021,” Scott Handel, lead meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction

 

I wish my job allowed me to be 100% wrong everyday and I get to keep my job! If I am wrong 1% one day, I get a nice empty box to fill with my personal belongings and a swift walk out. 🤣🤣🤣

[CouesPursuit]

3 hours ago, 654321 said:

Unfortunately right now they're predicting an La Nina pattern which is usually dry and warmer than normal winter. 

La Niña is usually dry and colder than normal winter. 

[wish2hunt]

3 hours ago, Edge said:

 wx forecasters are professional liars, I went back and Googled the NOAAs  monsoon prediction for us this current season...this is from just 10 weeks ago lol.

“A drier than normal Southwest monsoon season is slightly favored for 2021,” Scott Handel, lead meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction

 

They normally do a better job at predicting the winter rains.

[Edge]

39 minutes ago, CouesPursuit said:

La Niña is usually dry and colder than normal winter. 

Warmer. The Jet Stream stays north.

[Edge]

33 minutes ago, wish2hunt said:

They normally do a better job at predicting the winter rains.

That's why NOAA is giving a 55% chance of a La Nina season? That's really sticking their necks out.

As things stand with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niña Watch, which means they see La Niña likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through winter. 

unless you have this guy on your weather team, best keep those forecasts under 72hrs.