Flatlander

22 can be a circus for the Oct cow hunt. There's a ton of tags and a ton of folks running around. Nothing compared to the late bull hunts there but the woods are pretty full of folks 275 folks is a lot to jam into the northern portion of that unit. I bet they have flaggers on the control road.

24% - 6 Points was the Bonus Pass

Like TJ said, no apology required. Looks like perfect shot placement. Good work.

Yes that would have been better, but you still in all likelihood would not have had a chance at your first choice. So the best strategy would have been to apply for hunts that don't meet the NR 10% quota in the bonus pass. However there is no report of which I am aware that provides that info. Applying with a NR always makes getting a tag more difficult. But looking at your choices I kind of doubt that with 500 tags the Unit 8 late hunt will meet the NR quota in the bonus pass so I think you have a puncher's chance. I project your odds to be somewhere on the southside of 15%. 19A Rifle - 3% 19A Archery - 13% 4 Bonus Points pretty much gets you your pic of cow hunts. One thought about the 22 youth hunt, it is in Nov. so no bugles. I would go with 3A/3C, 1, 4A, 6A (although I have heard it has gotten tougher) in that order and then 22, 23. I know I am over stepping the realm of my expertise but figured I would throw my .02 in there. 6A-17% 6B-22% Sorry this took so long. 3 points in general gets you the following: 1) A single digit chance at an early archery bull tag 2) A 1% chance at a muzzy or rifle early tag 3) A 10 - 15% chance at middle of the road early archery hunts 4) A 30% chance at a Nov. Rifle tag 5) A 50% chance at most Nov. Archery tags 6) Near 100% on 6B, 7E, 22 or 23 Nov. archery Good luck everybody! Post up your application choices!

Realistically that lady probably doesn't know anymore about the draw than the front desk girl at my office knows about building water treatment plants. I could be wrong but I am just guessing. Here is a link to the AZGFD explanation of the draw. It is complicated so read carefully a couple of times. If you learn the process you can really increase the number of tags you will have in your lifetime. http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BigGameDrawingProcess.shtml

Daggum. I knew those things were little but those things are like micro-deer.

Alright guys last call . . . if you have nay special requests I will check tonight at 8:00 and try and crank out results by the end of the night.

Awesome movie.

Spot on. The only way that this could change is if there were enough new applicants in 5A with 9+ points to push the bonus pass up. I don't anticipate that happening. So good luck and enjoy your tag. It is well deserved after much waiting and anticipation. Every elk I have ever killed was in 5A and as a kid I used to lay in bed and dream about chasing bugling bulls around Clint's Well. It is the birth place of my obsession. The first hunt I ever went on was an early cow hunt there when I was 11 years old. I went back every fall until I was 22. Let the dreaming and anticipation begin. BTW Unit 9 archery as a first choice would have left you in the same predicament. Don't look back. Has anyone had their card hit yet? Haha

I knew when they were unloading gear from the trunk of an 09 GTO that this was going to be good. The appearance of a battle axe was noteworthy, and then the clear and blatant disregard for gun safety kept you on the edge of your seat. But the cliffhanger ending was the cherry on top.

Put in a new work top, shelves and upper cabinet this weekend. Got the man cave functional again. Sticker Sighting Sorry about the quality, had to use the cell phone.

11% - Took 7 to make the bonus pass

I was refering to the police shooting the civilians. I have seen nothing reported about that other than the LA Times article previously posted.

Thats not even a Titan. I literally have seen nothing on this.

3A/3C - 10% 5BS - 14% (Bonus pass was 8 pts last year) 7W - 17% 8 - 20% 23 - 20% Late Rifle 4B - 100% Late Rifle 5B - 100% Shouldn't matter solo or double with 7 bo you are deep into the bonus pass. 9 - 100% 23N - 6% Last year the bonus pass tags went to applicants with 17, 15 and 14 points. There were 5 applicants with 14 points so assuming the other 4 did not draw other hunts and apply for the same hunt this year you would still be on the outside looking in because only 3 tags are given in the bonus pass. Additionally there were 4 guys with 13 points last year. So with all this being said you can have 9 this year, but 23N could take a couple more years to reach via the bonus pass. I anticipate seeing point creep in 23N for a while because so few tags are issued. Ok guys I think I got everyone what they needed. I hope everyone was aware that these are my own statistics, not from Hunter's Trailhead. I build my own spreadsheets and calculate my own odds. They have traditionally been very close to what I have read on HT, but our methodology does differ. Good luck to everyone in the draw!

It took 14 to make the bonus pass on archery and 19 for rifle last year

Nice catch. Corrected.

Not sure if you are still following this thread hopefully you haven't already filled out your app. Unit 10 would be at best a 50/50 shot for you this year especially if you have 2 applicants on one app. Last year the Bonus pass extended to the 10 BP group, but only 3 of those drew. That means that 36 tags had already been distributed and the NR cap (19) likely met. If you would like a tag this year I would recommend 3B, 7W, or 8. I would say each of these still have a reasonable # of tags for the size of the unit, and should provide ample room to spread out. I also like that if the rut is not in full swing these units are very glass-able, with lots of juniper country. Units 7W and 8 border unit 9 but don't get near as much attention. Unit 3B borders unit 1. With 11 NR points any of these 3 should be a lock. Good luck and let us know what you decide.

You are on your own there buddy. I did my time. 9 Archery - 4%, I don't have data on muzzy but it will be worse. 8 Archery - 9 points got you a tag last year

Unit 1 - 5% Unit 8 - 8%

I would kill that bull in a heartbeat. Seems like a no brainer unless I am hunting the White Mountain.

3A/3C Jr. 1 BP - 6% Not sure which 5BN hunt you need results for. 17%

This is a smokin deal on an all time great bow.

Which 5BN hunt?

With an increase of over 100 tags this year there will be 5 additional tags available in the Bonus Pass. I would say you are a lock. Good luck, I wish I was in your shoes, but with 6 bp its gunna be a roll of the dice for me. No problem. To be honest I really enjoy building the spreadsheets and figuring the #'s. I am an estimator by profession and what can I say, I'm a nerd.