elecshoc

The mortality rate as noted before in China was always high and experts knew that. This was contributed to high smoker rates for older men, the death rates for women of the same age groups were much lower and experts noted we would probably fall somewhere in the middle. Here the x factor was the high rate of obesity and how well those would fare once infected. Who knows how that's gonna end up. Secondly the other concern and why the distancing was started was to keep from flooding the hospitals with patients. This why China built hospitals from scratch and why Spain buckled to the brink of collapsing their health care system. Here in the US the numbers are still climbing and the morgues in New York are starting to fill. As long as those number keep climbing at exponetial rates there is still some concern.

Money I'm America will get you in front of a lot of lines... I'm not sure what the answer is to this, I'm sure if you have the cash there not much you can't get done.

Make good points but the number of deaths with those infected continue to rise not just those infected. If it is the case as you pointed out that we are finding exhisting cases as opposed to locating new ones the death rate would have normalized. So far it hasn't, the death rate among those infected is still rising along the same curve as those that test positive. We got to remember as well the US isnt testing the general public, we're only testing those people that are showing symptoms or have been in close contact with a known carrier. So those who are infected with no symptoms haven't been tested. For now thought I'm AZ has 9 deaths with 509 infected. Just a little under 2% death rate.

Oxford University just put out a study which in short said that because the virus may have been in europe and in the states earlier than what is believe now that there maybe some immunity in place for a number of us already. Just what some have said here and what othere have said that there is a possibility that we've had it circulating here in Tucson for a while now and just saw it as another cold. Also reports from the Netherlands and Germany are looking good as far as having less than projected number of serious cases. Both of those countries have a population that is generally healthy which is a big factor in having the ability to fight this virus. Our biggest issue (no pun intended) is probably going to be our obesity issue. Well see how the southern states handle this. New York there's just too many people

With this particular virus we got to think of it like an math equation with an exponent. So in this case the exponent is 2.5. What that basically means for over i think it was 3 to 5 days infected carriers will infect on average 2.5 people. So this virus if remainded unchecked will double its infection rate 2.5 time over every 3 to 5 days on average. With the numbers were seeing it looks about right on track for that. Rigjt now those numbers don't seem large at all, but like with any equation with compounding interest it will Ballon up quick if unchecked.

So with more and more testing happening we're getting to see the growth of this right here at home. So with testing were seeing only the people sick enough to ask for medical help. We'll probably never really know the total number infected just due to nature of testing everyone as being too vast to complete. With that there's a study right now in iceland were the population is small enough that they're attempting to test as many people as possible to get a picture of the efficacy of measures and just an overall view of the situation. With that they tested just over 4000 people who had no symptoms and found 48 who were virus positive. If that holds up for the rest of the world 4% of the population will be carriers and infectious without a clue. https://www.government.is/news/article/2020/03/15/Large-scale-testing-of-general-population-in-Iceland-underway/ So with that stay safe everyone.

When decisions have to be made that try to quantify anyone's life over another is never going to be easy. In your opinion this is over the top, too much for you and that's ok. For myself and in only my opinion, I'll take the hit if that means my grandson maybe able to hunt with his great grandfather and to hear family stories straight from his great grandmother. I'll pay the price for this if that means I'll have to start from scratch again.

Sorry for your loss

In that case don't read this.... https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html

I'm sure because Italy is the bell cow so to speak of what happens when the call to action isn't taken seriously. As it stands right now it seems the surgeon general is expecting the exponential curve to continue.

We are waiting for the vaccine or cure. The only other way we may become immune to this is we get it and build antibodies to it by fighting it off (still maybe possible to contract it again, but still up in the air). For the generally healthy that won't be a problem. For ones that do have issues it could mean various degrees of lost lung function to death. By staying home we aren't trying to kill it off, we are mitigating the flow of patients that require hospitalization. We just want to give time for the sick to heal and for the hospitals to handle the flow.

Its gonna last until those who need it are unoculaded. It's also probably going to be in waves like Hong Kong is experiencing. They had the infections down to 0 when they eased travel restrictions. What happened then were their citizens started returning home and some being infected started the cycle back up again

Here's the data tables I like taking a look at daily. Its from here https://twitter.com/kendrickhang/status/1242237673818836992?s=19 He's a software developer that's just interested in the numbers and he puts this up daily. What I like about his tables is that it gives a visual representation of the number of cases vs Italy's and he offset the data tables to give a day by day comparison to where Italy was for that given day. So Italy has an 11 day headstart on the infection table. What really interest me is the infection rate has remained pretty constant even though the comparison is worlds apart. Good thing for the US is the death rate hasn't increased exponentially same as Italy. Whats is also interesting with this are all various factors that are variables in these results. There are regional, cultural, health care and overall medical differences that contribute to all of this data. One thing that stuck with me from the Rogan podcast was the dr talking about how the death rate for the older Chinese men being significantly higher than the woman. Smoking was a large factor contributing to that fact. From Italy I understand the cultural practice of kissing when greeting some one and the high population of older citizens is a huge factor. With US the death rate is lower and hopefully it remains this way. However the rate in which we are finding and reporting cases is still rising. Thats the number we need to have slow down in order not to swamp health care facilities and to give those vulnerable to the virus a shot at beating this.

Admin just closed the southern border to nonessential travel.

We just got some from the farmers market as well

Not sure but here in west Tucson its chicken thats been out. So we just bought a spring turkey to cook up. Been good on steaks n beef here.

Ok folks, looks like this may get rough for a bit. If this what I think it is, we looking at a mandatory lock down going into effect not only here but everywhere. Be safe out there its the best chance we have at slowing this down. Hopefully I'm wrong but once the guard is in place it won't be long after. Hoping for the best.

A lil good news. Remember we're practicing precautions to give those of us who do get seriously ill a fighting chance at getting better and to allow health care workers the time to treat the sick. This is going to be about extending the timeline. In sports terms were in the 4th qtr of a basketball game and we're just about to start fouling to extend the game.

https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ?amp=1 Here's a link to the report from imperial college covid response team. Reportedly this is the model that the US and the UK are basing our response to the virus from. Unbiased scientific report which shows possible outcomes. You may use it how you like.