stanley

I suspect huntlines is just going based on how it works historically. Don't think he's purporting that it has to happen that way. That being said, I suppose this could be another point to debate and argue about to pass the time.... 🙄🤣

I love this sort of stuff, so this is kind of driving me crazy. 🙄 Still grappling with 20 points equating to 30% chance of grabbing one of 200 tags, especially when each individual point is only a .00753 chance of being drawn. Hmmmm.....

2) Draw percentages, the way I read the G&F draw rules... I ran some numbers & came up with the following: Assuming there are 200 tags in a hunt & there are a total of 13,272 total "points" in that hunt's draw (adding up all applicants points randomly assigned) each point gets you 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags. If you have 20 points you have a 30.1386% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags. Multiple hunters on one application that average 5 points/each have a 7.5347% chance of getting 4 of the 200 tags, assuming that when their app was selected at least 4 tags were left over. For that reason, their chances are slightly less than that... Ugh..... Testing my memory of basic Statistics 200 many, many years ago, but I'm thinking you're wrong on the 30.1386% chance of drawing. In order to have a 30% chance, you would need to hold 30% of the total points, I think. Seems what you have is is a 1.5069% chance of drawing a tag, 20 different times. Can't find the formula off the top of my head, but it is definitely NOT a 30% chance.

+1. That is not a tag transfer or gaming scenario. That is a poaching scenario, IMO.

I'm not waiting on portal updates, I'm just waiting on the draw. Once they complete the draw (whenever that happens), I'll wait until I hear they have updated the portal and then check to see what I got drawn for. Or I'll just call the phone number and try to find out what unit I was drawn for like I did prior to the portal being introduced. Of course that's only IF I end-up being lucky enough to get a card hit. If I don't get a card hit, then I'll likely not log into the portal for a long time.

The Hunter Ed idea is not a bad one. Double win of likely weeding-out any non-hunters, but also frankly just helping with the average yayhoo being a little more safe. Regarding folks not putting their money where their mouth is, I say a BIG +1 to that!!! IMO it applies as much to those who vote for Republicans, too. If you have ever gone to a G&F meeting or gotten involved in any of the local hunting/fishing organizations, the level of apathy and/or non-action by hunters in general is pretty clear. Even when there is a so called hot topic (like trail cams, for instance), the % of hunters who actually show-up to a meeting to comment is extraordinarily low. Complaining online (or nowhere at all) is what the large majority of hunters do. 🙄

For me, it just seems like the way of things in AZ. 18,000 more applicants for elk/pronghorn, 1000's more campers in the woods/desert, side-by-sides all over the place, road paved all the way to Big Lake, etc... For sure, 18,000 is a large increase, but given the total number of applicants each year and the total bonus points in the pool, I don't feel like statistically it will make a hugely significant impact to the odds of the vast majority of the hunts (Of course the proof will be in the pudding when the 2021 draw odds are published later in the year.). I know I have seen the total number of applicants year over year posted here recently, (Likely Flatlander posted....), but what would really interest me would be the total bonus points, which I feel would give a truer picture of how much an additional 18,000 applicants (theoretically, each with NO bonus points) would impact the odds. S.

WARNING!!!! I started poking-around on the site. Just for giggles I hit the Paypal button (one of the ways to test legitimacy), and got the following: "The requested action could not be performed, semantically incorrect, or failed business validation. || PAYEE_ACCOUNT_RESTRICTED:The merchant account is restricted." (So basically, Paypal is restricting their account...) Potential buyers beware!

I think I can use that! I'll take it. PM coming.... S.

100% There is no doubt that there has been in increase in the past weeks/months of this sort of thing. The average spammer/scammer used to just post on the public forum (similar to the Apple phone dude that just got deleted). Seems that lately the thing is the private messaging. Casey had posted a good PSA as a heads-up to folks on this yesterday. Everyone should keep their BS alert meter tuned-in!!

Done. Gone. He had sent 60 messages in his brief time here.

Frankenpistol!!!

Yup, got it. I was just checking land status on Table Mesa Road east of I-17.

Hmmmm..... OnX says the only parcel of private land is approximately 1/4-1/3 mile east of I-17. All the rest of the way east it’s either State Trust or Tonto NF.

He's gone. (For now.... 🙄)

Not sure if any of you were watching this saga. Would be hard to miss if you are invested in the market and track your portfolio at any basic level. https://www.wsj.com/articles/keith-gill-drove-the-gamestop-reddit-mania-he-talked-to-the-journal-11611931696 For me, like most folks, the VAST majority of my portfolio (both retirement and other wise) is of course in mutual funds focused on growth (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, plus a little international stuff....). I do, however keep some off to the side in individual stocks that I monitor/move/play-with(🙄) mainly because it is interesting to me and I enjoy it. That being said though, I generally don't get into short positions or too much speculation. Amazing how big this blew-up, and also for sure exposes what most investors knew already, which is the 'big boys' rule the market and will take steps to control things to their advantage however and whenever they see fit! Anyway, curious how closely others are watching this deal?? S.

Yup! Heading out early tomorrow morning for two final days running & gunning the washes after Gamble’s. Will spend tomorrow night around a BIG mesquite fire in the middle of a sand wash with old friends. Should be a perfect end to a great season! 👍🏻😉

Good timing, because I'm almost out of 12 & 20 gauge, and there ain't none to be found!

Reminded me of this one by The Bottlle Rockets. One of my all time favorite bands. Hilarious lyrics. Sincerely though, hope the dude gets his rig back! S.

Ummm..... Again, huh? You left one of the words out in the forum name you are trying to describe. It’s called: Non-hunting Related Politics. 😉 I figured this topic was more closely related to business/investing. Feel free to contact Amanda and volunteer if you want to help moderate. 😂

What forum would be a better fit for a 'business/investing' related topic?? I'm all ears.....

Huh?

Ya, it is also quite common for outfitters (and 'average Joe's') to go out spotlighting the night before a hunt, for the same purpose. I don't even think that is illegal as long as you don't have a weapon with you, and maybe even with a weapon as long as you don't use it. I nfrared or spotlight, either way, it seems sort of stinky to me....

Meanwhile, while CHAMP and crossbows are being debated at nauseam, the topic in question in front of the Commission is trail cams! 🙄🤣

My head keeps going back to the podcast with Kurt Davis and Jim Goughnour from the other thread. In the podcast, Davis expresses the sentiment a couple of times that refers to 'hunting skills' and the old school ways of doing things. He says "we have hunted for 1000s of years, and somehow did it without cameras...." and "We'll be able to hunt well into the future..... for those who work the hardest, those that walk the land, those who learn the signs..." "a fear that I have as a sportsman, is that some of those skills are being lost, and not passed on...". So basically he is stating that he thinks that the rudimentary basics skills of old-school hunting should be passed on to future generations, and that is one of the reasons he is pushing for the ban. That sentiment from Davis is what I have a problem with. While I may agree with him that it's cool to pass down those rudimentary skills, I have a problem with him using that as an excuse to ban the cameras for the take of wildlife (Starts to smell very much like a scope vs. iron sites kind of debate....). Squishy territory, when you start to make a judgment call for ALL regarding what skills/traditions are important to pass along. Teach your grandkids all you want about how to hunt, but please don't get your nose into the business of how and what I'll teach mine!